Background: Sepsis progress rapidly and has high morbidity and mortality. So, it becomes necessary to have a valid diagnostic tool which can rapidly stratify the patients based on the risk they pose. MEDS score is such an evaluation tool which is computed from readily available parameters. This study is conducted to evaluate the MEDS score to predict mortality in 28 days of sepsis. Methods: This Prospective study was conducted at Government medical college and ESI hospital, coimbatore for one year duration after obtaining local ethical committee permission. Based on the incidence at this college the sample size was calculated as 178 patients presenting to emergency department with features of systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Nine clinical and laboratory parameters were noted at the time of admission and they were followed for 28 days with aim of recovery from illness or mortality and the variables noted. Results: Data were analysed using SPSS V.16 software. The MEDS score had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88(95% confidence interval, 0.83- 0.92) and has perfect discriminatory ability in all five risk categories. Conclusion: The MEDS score system predicts 28-days mortality with discriminative ability among patients presenting with features of systemic inflammatory response syndrome to emergency department, Government medical college and ESI hospital, coimbatore. All the nine risk factors included in computing MEDS score has cumulative effect in influencing mortality rate and none has independent risk.
Sepsis is described as a systemic inflammatory response syndrome, which is initiated by a proven or assumed infectious etiology. Sepsis has a rapid pathophysiological course towards severe multiorgan dysfunction. It has increased morbidity and mortality profile and in septic shock the mortality accounts to about 16% to 50%.
To prevent mortality and to alleviate morbidity we should be,
So formed a risk stratification tool which is reliable and reproducible and it improves the management of sepsis and improves the outcome. Such a tool is the
Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS)2 score
S.NO |
CHARACTERISTIC PARAMETER |
SCORE |
|
Predisposition factors: |
|
1 |
Age > 65years |
3 |
2 |
Nursing home resident |
2 |
3 |
Co morbid condition with high mortality |
6 |
|
Infection: |
|
4 |
Lower respiratory tract infection |
3 |
|
Immune response: |
|
5 |
Band forms > 5% |
3 |
|
Organ dysfunction criteria: |
|
6 |
Respiratoy rate > 20 |
3 |
7 |
Refractile shock in sepsis |
3 |
8 |
Thrombocytopenia < 150,000/mm3 |
3 |
9 |
Confused mental status |
2 |
|
TOTAL SCORE |
27 |
Based on the total score obtained the patients are categorized into 5 MEDS- risk groups.
Total points |
MEDS- risk group |
0-4 |
Very low |
5-7 |
Low |
8-12 |
Moderate |
13-15 |
High |
>15 |
Very- high |
Mortality predicted for each group by Shapiro et al is:
MEDS- risk group |
Mortality rate (28 days) in % |
Very low |
1.1 |
Low |
4.4 |
Moderate |
9.3 |
High |
16.1 |
Very-high |
39.0 |
OBJECTIVE:
METHODOLOGY:
STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.
SAMPLE SIZE: 178 patients.
INCLUSION CRITERIA:
SIRS is defined as presence of atleast 2 of following characteristics:
EXCLUSION CRITERIA:
STUDY METHOD:
The MEDS score variables are collected for the patients included in the study. Data will be entered in an excel work sheet.
Based on the total score the patients will be categorized into various MEDS risk groups.
The patients will be followed till recovery from illness or death upto maximum of 28days and the outcome will be recorded.
OUTCOME:
Then the obtained outcomes of data will be analysed at the end of the study period.
Table 1: Sex Distribution In Sample
S.NO |
SEX |
TOTAL |
1. |
MALE |
142 |
2. |
FEMALE |
36 |
Table 2: Meds- Risk Category
S.NO |
MEDS- RISK CATEGORY |
TOTAL |
1 |
VERY LOW |
37 |
2 |
LOW |
39 |
3 |
MODERATE |
39 |
4 |
HIGH |
34 |
5 |
VERY HIGH |
29 |
Table 3: Outcome In Different Meds Group
S.NO |
MEDS- RISK GROUP |
TOTAL |
DISCHARGED |
DIED |
MORTALITY % |
1 |
VERY LOW |
37 |
36 |
1 |
2.7 |
2 |
LOW |
39 |
37 |
2 |
5.1 |
3 |
MODERATE |
39 |
36 |
3 |
7.7 |
4 |
HIGH |
34 |
29 |
5 |
14.7 |
5 |
VERY HIGH |
29 |
21 |
8 |
27.6 |
Table 4: Comparison Of Predicted Mortality In Study And By Shapiro Et Al.
S.NO |
MEDS- RISK GROUP |
MORTALITY IN PRESENT STUDY |
MORTALITY PREDICTED BY SHAPIRO ET AL |
1 |
VERY LOW |
2.7 |
1.1 |
2 |
LOW |
5.1 |
4.4 |
3 |
MODERATE |
7.7 |
9.3 |
4 |
HIGH |
14.7 |
16.1 |
5 |
VERY HIGH |
27.6 |
39 |
Table 5: Individual Parameters Influencing Mortality.
S.NO |
PARAMETER |
IN ALL CASES |
MORTALITY |
1 |
AGE >65 YEARS |
45 |
7 |
2 |
NURSING HOME RESIDENT |
121 |
15 |
3 |
RAPIDLY TERMINAL COMORBID ILLNESS |
39 |
6 |
4 |
LOWER RESPIRATORY INFECTION |
75 |
12 |
5 |
BANDS >5% |
37 |
4 |
6 |
TACYPNOEA/ HYPOXEMIA |
91 |
16 |
7 |
SEPTIC SHOCK |
68 |
12 |
8 |
PLATELET <150,000 |
68 |
8 |
9 |
ALTERED MENTAL STATUS |
49 |
9 |
Sepsis which is a systemic inflammatory response syndrome3, initiated by a proven or proposed infectious etiology. It progress very drastically to an aggressive stage with multi organ dysfunction. It has high morbidity and mortality rates ranging from 16% to 50% in septic shock.
Hence to predict the outcome early and to initiate EGDT, a scoring system devised by Shapiro et al known as MEDS4 score was selected in the study and subjected for validation.
The nine readily available parameters of 178 patients were collected over a period of one year and the patients were categorized into five different risk groups. The variables were analysed using SPSS version 16.0 software.
The MEDS score had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.92) and has perfect discriminatory5 ability in all five risk categories.